Written for London Politica's Latin America Programme 2024
Executive Summary
● The migration crisis is a central campaign issue for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, with a majority of Americans claiming it to be one of their top concerns.
● The increasing complexity of migration is a pillar of the U.S. - Latin America relationship ● Efforts to create and consolidate a comprehensive migration policy will dramatically change depending on the results of the 2024 U.S. presidential elections.
As the 2024 U.S. Presidential election approaches, the U.S.-Mexico border is once again a central campaign issue. Both Democrats and Republicans advocate for stronger border policies to address the ongoing crisis at the border. Donald Trump has pledged for a zero-tolerance policy on migrants, which would likely lead to a shift in Washington’s relation with Latin America. Harris, on the other has made efforts to present herself as a strong candidate on border security, emphasising her record in prosecuting human traffickers and drug cartels in California. Additionally, she highlights her work as Biden’s Vice President, where she’s been pushing for regional policies, specifically on the ‘root causes’ of migration in South American countries. As Biden’s presidency comes to an end, his handling of border security was among his worst-rated issues in polls. While Democrats expected a return to a less criminalising migration policy, illegal border crossings soared in the months after Biden took office, reaching an all-time high of 2.2 million crossings in 2022. Facing domestic pressure, Biden asserted that immigration laws would still be enforced and opted to maintain Title 42, a policy expanded by Trump during the pandemic, which enabled the swift expulsion of border crossers. Once Biden’s administration announced it would cease applying “Title 42” in May 2023, migration figures spiked, leading to the administration’s first border emergency. Soon after, Biden assigned Harris to lead a new effort to address the “root causes” of Central American emigration, including economic, political and security issues that prompted the on going migration crisis.
Source: Getty
Migration in figures
2023 represented a new record; nearly 2.5 million “irregular encounters” (a U.S. Customs and Border Protection terminology for expulsions and apprehensions of migrants) were counted at the U.S.-Mexico border. This broke the fiscal year’s record of 2.2 million which, in turn, broke the previous year’s record of 1.6 million. Although the number of irregular encounters dropped sharply by June 2024, the official figure of 104,116 migrant encounters in July 2024 is still over 20,000 more than the number of encounters recorded in July 2019 (the last comparable year before the COVID19 pandemic). While The role of migration in the 2024 U.S. Presidential race The role of migration in the 2024 U.S. Presidential race Analysis 2 figures do certainly portray an increasingly complex scenario for Washington, it is essential to analyse where migrants are coming, and how this issue might impact U.S.-Latin America relations.
Trump vs Kamala: what to expect on the migration crisis after the U.S. Elections?
Migration figures are expected to rise again in the medium term. Given the importance of this issue in American politics, it is essential to evaluate the potential outcomes under either a Harris or Trump administration.
Source: BBC Mundo
Scenario 1: A Harris Victory
Since 2021, Harris has been leading the administration’s diplomatic efforts to address the root causes of migration, particularly from the ‘Northern Triangle’ (El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras). Her “Root Causes Strategy” focuses on collaborating with bilateral, multilateral, private sector partners and civil society leaders to enhance efforts aimed at curbing migration. Although she has secured important private sector investments in the region, the medium to long-term of this strategy remains uncertain, and questions persist on the support it will receive from Democrats and lawmakers.
What would a Harris’ win mean for migration coming from Latin America?
Risks:
Harris’ strategy towards migration is based on long-term objectives: Harris has focused on boosting private investment in El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala, aiming to improve the fragile political and financial situation these countries face. While this strategy is likely to be effective to tackle the illegal migration issue in the long term, it lacks the short-term component, making it difficult to quantify the results of such programs.
Harris’ main focus on the private-sector component is not enough to ensure regional support: while the pursuit of migration management via the contribution of the Northern Triangle and Mexico’s private sector will play a crucial role in financing regional strategies, it will not be enough to ensure local support in the region. If Harris does not present a comprehensive government strategy to limit illegal crossings at the border, it may hinder economic support from important local stakeholders and may create a deeper division in the U.S. public opinion.
Opportunities:
By working with the Northern Triangle, Harris may secure regional support for new migration policies, which could strengthen local initiatives and legislation in the region. Harris’s integration of the private sector in migration policy could initiate a new approach to border management, allocating national security budgets to border control while leveraging private financing for regional strategies.
Scenario 2: A Trump Victory
In his first term, Trump quickly implemented a hardline approach to migration, targeting both the U.S.-Mexico border and policies related to refugees and asylum seekers. He terminated the Deferred Action The role of migration in the 2024 U.S. Presidential race Analysis 3 for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and introduced the controversial "Title 42" policy. Throughout his term, Trump enacted over 1,000 immigration-related policies, and he plans to reinforce many of them if re-elected. His current platform includes promises of conducting the "largest deportation operation in American history," requiring an all-encompassing federal and state effort.
What would Trump’s win mean for migration coming from Latin America?
Risks:
The "Build the Wall" slogan, a key aspect of Trump’s first campaign, may not be as effective this time. Despite his claims, Trump was responsible for constructing only 50 miles of new wall, while most of the existing 700 miles were built under previous administrations. Pursuing the same rhetoric without substantial progress could weaken voter confidence.
Trump's harsher immigration policies could destabilize the U.S. economy. Although they may bolster his Republican base, they could also lead to higher unemployment and slower growth, especially in industries reliant on immigrant labor, such as agriculture and construction.
Opportunities:
Migration remains a major concern for U.S. voters. By continuing to frame it as a national security issue, Trump could strengthen his support base and solidify his immigration policies in the medium term.
If Trump learns from his first-term missteps, he may pursue a more strategic approach to migration, potentially prompting Latin American governments to adopt stronger security policies to maintain diplomatic relations with the U.S. However, a shift from economic support to security management could exacerbate illegal migration and reduce regional cooperation.
Conclusions
Migration will play a crucial role in the upcoming U.S. elections, not only shaping the future of immigration policy, but also shaping the country’s relationship with Latin America, particularly the Northern Triangle countries and Mexico. Both risks and opportunities for Harris and Trump portray the complexity of the migration crisis and suggest the need for a strong local and regional strategy.
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